Taxacom: Taxacom Digest, Vol 221, Issue 7

Fri Sep 13 12:55:30 CDT 2024

I think there is more than a little issue of Popperian science that needs
to be considered here.

A model is used to predict the occurrence of a species in a certain
location. So species A is in location A, and because of some features in
the model, it is then predicted to occur at location B, either as species A
or its evolutionary derivative, species B.

The model could well make the correct prediction, but that does not mean
that the model's mechanism for species A getting to location B is correct.
In fact, the model prediction presumes the mechanism, that is, the mode of
movement between locations A and B. Popper would say that all other
possible mechanisms of movement between locations A and B would need to be
falsified before the mechanism that is presumed could be accepted. Nothing
of the sort has been done here.

I think an interesting case in point was the news story a month or so ago
of West African butterflies arriving en masse on the eastern coast of S
America. I don't remember the exact details, but it seemed a large number
of butterflies had been swept across the Atlantic.... so a dispersal event
for that species is possible if they survive in the new location. My point
is that a dispersal event may be improbable in many cases, but here you
have direct evidence of its possibility.

Falsifying biogeographic mechanisms is extremely difficult. So I wouldn't
get too excited when your model makes a correct prediction. Nice that it
did, but it explains nothing.

Les

Les Watling
Professor Emeritus
School of Life Sciences
University of Hawaii

Professor Emeritus
School of Marine Sciences
University of Maine

On Fri, Sep 13, 2024 at 1:00 PM <taxacom-request at lists.ku.edu> wrote:

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> Today's Topics:
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>    1. quoting on facts (John Grehan)
>    2. Re: quoting on facts (John Grehan)
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> Message: 1
> Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2024 22:51:33 -0400
> From: John Grehan <calabar.john at gmail.com>
> To: taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>
> Subject: Taxacom: quoting on facts
> Message-ID:
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> With respect to Mike's comment on my original posting: "statement? shows a
> deep misunderstanding of logic and hypothetical-deductive reasoning. Facts
> are -- they are not generated",  a colleague noted off list, that I had
> said "generated predictions of new facts", not that facts are generated,
> which is a quite different statement. Trivial perhaps, but nice to know I
> was not entirely off the mark.
>
> Cheers, John
>
> --
>
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> (use the 'visit archived web site'
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> ------------------------------
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> Message: 2
> Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:33:03 -0400
> From: John Grehan <calabar.john at gmail.com>
> To: John Grehan <calabar.john at gmail.com>
> Cc: taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>
> Subject: Re: Taxacom: quoting on facts
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> I received an offlist response so I don't know if that was accidental or
> intentional, so retain anonymity here. The response was "You ARE on the
> mark, it is that the way you say that makes people ignore it!  That is my
> point, communicate in a way that colleagues will listen to.  Your complaint
> is that they ignore you, that is why."
>
> First, the way I 'said it' was clear enough - that
> panbiogeography generated predictions of new facts. Not sure how this can
> be viewed as a way of saying something that makes people ignore it. 'They'
> don't ignore it just because of me. There are other contributions in
> prominent research journals and books where editorial policy would not
> allow for substandard language, and the stuff still gets ignored. I am more
> inclined to the view that the ignoring of panbiogeography is because it
> upsets the center of origin-chance dispersal applecart where
> 'biogeographers' can just pump out results from recipes without having to
> know actual biogeography. Imagine if biogeographers needed to be familiar
> with details of distribution, not only for their group, but for taxa in
> general, and globally. Oh what a lot of work, and so little time to get
> another funding grant.
>
> Cheers, John
>
> On Thu, Sep 12, 2024 at 10:52?PM John Grehan via Taxacom <
> taxacom at lists.ku.edu> wrote:
>
> > With respect to Mike's comment on my original posting: "statement? shows
> a
> > deep misunderstanding of logic and hypothetical-deductive reasoning.
> Facts
> > are -- they are not generated",  a colleague noted off list, that I had
> > said "generated predictions of new facts", not that facts are generated,
> > which is a quite different statement. Trivial perhaps, but nice to know I
> > was not entirely off the mark.
> >
> > Cheers, John
> >
> > --
> >
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> End of Taxacom Digest, Vol 221, Issue 7
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