[Taxacom] human death list

Mon Mar 29 18:10:55 CDT 2021

Hi Stephen,
       There are already nearly 1,000,000 covid deaths in 2021, so it could easily reach 2,000,000 this year.  Then it will likely drop off some in 2022 (unless deadlier variants keep the numbers up in 2022).
        In any case, it will probably eventually drop down to hundreds of thousands per year (like influenza, HIV, malaria, etc.).   We'll probably have to have annual booster shots like we do for influenza to keep up with variants.
        As for wiggle room, the numbers could be underestimates rather than overestimates.  How many deaths did it really cause in China.  Probably a lot more than WHO's official number of 4,636.  It was estimated that they had 36,000 deaths in Wuhan by March 2020:  https://covid19.elsevierpure.com/de/clippings/chinas-real-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-14-times-bigger-than-off
[https://covid19.elsevierpure.com/skin/headerImage/]<https://covid19.elsevierpure.com/de/clippings/chinas-real-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-14-times-bigger-than-off>
China's real Covid-19 death toll could be 14 TIMES bigger than official data shows as study claims at least 36,000 people had already died in Wuhan by mid-March<https://covid19.elsevierpure.com/de/clippings/chinas-real-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-14-times-bigger-than-off>
covid19.elsevierpure.com

________________________________
From: Stephen Thorpe <stephen_thorpe at yahoo.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, March 29, 2021 2:28 PM
To: Cc: taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>; Kenneth Kinman <kinman at hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Taxacom] human death list

It may not be as simple as saying that Betacoronavirus "killed 2m", but rather "contributed to the death of 2m", or even just "2m people died within 28 days of a positive covid test". There seems to be a lot of wiggle room for "creative accounting" of covid deaths, more so than other c.o.d.'s. At least some of the 2m for Betacoronavirus need to be substracted from the totals from other c.o.d.'s (crucially including other things not in the list like "old age"), but, of course, we can't know the details there. I also note that, unlike the other causes on your list, the 2m figure for Betacoronovirus is based on a sample size of n=1 (year), so even a five year average is as yet unknown. It seems plausible that the first year could be by far the most deadly. This invalidates comparisons somewhat.
Stephen

On Tuesday, 30 March 2021, 07:38:14 am NZDT, Kenneth Kinman via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> wrote:

Hi Les,
        Yes, I seriously underestimated what the death toll would be from this pandemic.  My list was for deaths per calendar year, and the death toll for 2020 was about 2,000,000 worldwide.  So genus Betacoronavirus is now second behind genus Homo as the deadliest.  See updated listing below.
                    -----------------Ken Kinman

                                            Deadliest genera to humans in the 21st Century

Homo via bad dietary choices (especially those derived from Saccharomyces, Bos, Zea, Saccharum, and/or Beta, i.e. excess consumption of sugars, alcohol, and/or red meat) (resulting in over 13,000,000 human deaths per year).
Homo via Nicotiana, causing cancers from tobacco smoking and chewing (over 5,000,000 human deaths per year).
Homo (humans killing over 400,000 humans per year, plus about 800,000 suicides, totaling over 1,200,000 deaths per year).
Betacoronavirus (killed about 2,000,000 humans in the year 2020).
Mycobacterium, especially M. tuberculosis (over 1,200,000 human deaths per year).
Lentavirus, causing HIV infections (over 900,000 deaths per year).
Streptococcus, causing pneumonia and streptococcal meningitis (over 500,000 deaths per year).
Plasmodium (Anopheles the vector) causing malaria (about 400,000 deaths per year).
Alphainfluenzavirus, causing flu (290,000-645,000 human deaths per year).
Treponema, causing syphilis (about 100,000 deaths per year, plus over 200,000 stillbirths and neonatal deaths; total over 300,000 deaths).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rotavirus, causing enteritis (over 150,000 human deaths per year).
Salmonella, causing typhoid fever (over 100,000 human deaths per year).
Neisseria, causing meningococcal meningitis (about 75,000 human deaths per year).
Haemophilus, causing type b meningitis (about 70,000 human deaths per year).
Entamoeba, causing amoebic dysentery (50,000-100,000 humans per year).
Clostridium, causing tetanus (about 60,000 human deaths per year).
Norovirus (over 50,000 human deaths per year; with some estimates as high as 200,000).
Cryptosporidium, causing cryptosporidiosis (over 50,000 human deaths per year).
Aedes (carrying several viral diseases) (over 50,000 human death per year).
Schistosoma, causing schistosomiasis (about 50,000 deaths; about 200,000 humans in the year 2000; but treatment programs have reduced the number).
Bordetella, causing whooping cough (about 50,000 human deaths per year).
Shigella, causing shigellosis (about 50,000 human deaths per year).
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________________________________
From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>> on behalf of Les Watling via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
Sent: Monday, March 29, 2021 12:49 PM
To: Cc: taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu<mailto:taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>>
Subject: [Taxacom] human death list

As the covid-19 pandemic was beginning to unfold a few persons on this list
put out ranked lists of deaths of humans from various things like the early
20th century flu pandemic, wars, and the like.

I am wondering if those who posted during the early days of the covid
pandemic a year ago have thought of updating their lists of major causes of
human deaths. I seem to remember there was some thought that this wasn't
going to be a very serious pandemic, but I could be wrong about that.

In any case, I am curious about where the covid-19 total death numbers rank
with other pandemics, wars, etc.

Best,
Les Watling
Professor, School of Life Sciences
216 Edmondson Hall
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Honolulu, HI 96822
Ph. 808-956-8621
Cell: 808-772-9563
e-mail: watling at hawaii.edu<mailto:watling at hawaii.edu>
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Nurturing nuance while assaulting ambiguity for about 34 years, 1987-2021.