[Taxacom] the future of the amazon

Sun Jul 23 17:26:26 CDT 2006

here a devastating report out of Woodshole, which might, if it is true,
will have a tremendous effect on our systematic work, and needs actions

 Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert'

24 July 2006 00:20

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Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert'
And that could speed up global warming with 'incalculable consequences',
says alarming new research
By Geoffrey Lean in Manaus and Fred Pearce
Published: 23 July 2006

The vast Amazon rainforest is on the brink of being turned into desert,
with catastrophic consequences for the world's climate, alarming research
suggests. And the process, which would be irreversible, could begin as
early as next year.

Studies by the blue-chip Woods Hole Research Centre, carried out in
Amazonia, have concluded that the forest cannot withstand more than two
consecutive years of drought without breaking down.

Scientists say that this would spread drought into the northern
hemisphere, including Britain, and could massively accelerate global
warming with incalculable consequences, spinning out of control, a process
that might end in the world becoming uninhabitable.

The alarming news comes in the midst of a heatwave gripping Britain and
much of Europe and the United States. Temperatures in the south of England
reached a July record of 36.3C on Tuesday. And it comes hard on the heels
of a warning by an international group of experts, led by the Eastern
Orthodox " pope" Bartholomew, last week that the forest is rapidly
approaching a " tipping point" that would lead to its total destruction.

The research  carried out by the Massachusetts-based Woods Hole centre in
Santarem on the Amazon river  has taken even the scientists conducting it
by surprise. When Dr Dan Nepstead started the experiment in 2002  by
covering a chunk of rainforest the size of a football pitch with plastic
panels to see how it would cope without rain  he surrounded it with
sophisticated sensors, expecting to record only minor changes.

The trees managed the first year of drought without difficulty. In the
second year, they sunk their roots deeper to find moisture, but survived.
But in year three, they started dying. Beginning with the tallest the
trees started to come crashing down, exposing the forest floor to the
drying sun.

By the end of the year the trees had released more than two-thirds of the
carbon dioxide they have stored during their lives, helping to act as a
break on global warming. Instead they began accelerating the climate
change.

As we report today on pages 28 and 29, the Amazon now appears to be
entering its second successive year of drought, raising the possibility
that it could start dying next year. The immense forest contains 90
billion tons of carbon, enough in itself to increase the rate of global
warming by 50 per cent.

Dr Nepstead expects "mega-fires" rapidly to sweep across the drying
jungle. With the trees gone, the soil will bake in the sun and the
rainforest could become desert.

Dr Deborah Clark from the University of Missouri, one of the world's top
forest ecologists, says the research shows that "the lock has broken" on
the Amazon ecosystem. She adds: the Amazon is "headed in a terrible
direction".

Fred Pearce is the author of 'The Last Generation' (Eden Project Books),
published earlier this year