Certainty of progess

Peter Rauch anamaria at GRINNELL.BERKELEY.EDU
Tue Mar 12 16:21:45 CST 1996


> Date:         Tue, 12 Mar 1996 15:29:25 -0700
> From: Joe Laferriere <josephl at CCIT.ARIZONA.EDU>
>
> > Date:    Mon, 11 Mar 1996 17:08:38 -0500
> > From:    "James H. Beach" <jbeach at NSF.GOV>
> > Subject: Re: Electronic publishing (fwd)
> >
> >   Technology will change more quickly every year from now until
> > eternity.  It will never congeal.  We'll never catch up.
>
> ...  A brief perusal of human history will show you that
> nothing is inevitable, that progress can take unexpected directions,

Did Jim say "progress" or "change"?

> sometimes moving several notches backwards. The Fall of Rome set
> civilization back several centuries,

That's a "change"!

> and if you think a similar phenomenon
> today is impossible, you're sadly mistaken. Even on a smaller scale,
> things can move in totally unexpected directions.

I think that's what he was allowing with "change". Historical perspective
yells out that "change" is the only game in town.

>  Your statement "technology will change more
> rapidly every year from now until eternity" is, with all due respect,
> totally illogical and completely impossible. The sun will die long before
> the end of eternity.

As far as I'm concerned, eternity ends when I die. The mileage might
vary for others. In any case, for all intents and purposes (human),
eternity ends when the sun gets big.

With some levity, I hope,
Peter




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