[Pols-l] Fwd: Student Opportunity - The Foresight Project

Sat Aug 20 11:04:31 CDT 2016

FYI for your students....I forecasted for a couple years in the original project--pretty interesting

Don Haider-Markel
Sent via flying drone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Foresight Project <foresightprojectrecruitment at gmail.com<mailto:foresightprojectrecruitment at gmail.com>>
Date: August 19, 2016 at 3:39:11 PM CDT
To: dhmarkel at ku.edu<mailto:dhmarkel at ku.edu>
Subject: Student Opportunity - The Foresight Project

Hello Professor Haider-Markel,

My name is John Lindsey, I work as a research assistant for Professor Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania. I wanted to tell you about our upcoming NSF-funded study, and ask for your help in encouraging students to participate.

We are recruiting college students as forecasters for a tournament on domestic and international events. It is a new undertaking, designed by the makers of The Good Judgment Project, whose superforecasters beat intelligence analysts at their own game by up to 30% (please feel free to read about our previous work by following this link:http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent. ) We invite you and/or your students to test your skills by joining us in The Foresight Project. Our goal is to better understand tournament design and the factors that make people more accurate. If you are a politically-engaged student, and you want to improve your forecasting skills, you will find this project interesting and fun. We also think the skills gained through participation could be tremendously helpful for students looking for careers within the intelligence community, economics, and public policy.

Would you be willing to send this recruitment note to anyone you think might be interested? Please feel free to copy the bold information below.

Many thanks and best regards,
-John Lindsey

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We know more now than ever before about how to make accurate predictions (e.g., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction). We are conducting the first of three tournaments (2016-2019), each starting on October 25th and lasting for about 8 months.

Participants will:

-Complete a 45-minute battery of political and psychological tests to predict forecasting accuracy.

-Take a 10 min training module about forecasting accuracy.

-Make predictions about questions throughout the year whenever you wish! We will post a few
questions online each week, for example "Will Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?" Select at least 30 questions and update them until the question closes.

-Get feedback after each question closes.

Now, for the rewards... Each year

-The top 10% of forecasters will be featured on the Foresight Leaderboard at all times.

-The top 2% of participants will each be awarded a $500 Amazon gift card (roughly 50 people).

-The top 2% of participants will be featured in The Washington Post, Monkey Cage.

-100 other people will have a chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card (with more accurate forecasters having better chances of winning).

-200 other people will have a chance to win a $25 Amazon gift card (with more accurate forecasters having better chances of winning).

If you are interested, please sign up at  http://www.foresightproj.com<http://www.foresightproj.com/>

Please note: We are focused primarily on college students (undergraduates, graduate students, and professional students). If you participated in The Good Judgment Project or GJ Open, please don't sign up for the Foresight Project. We will be announcing other tournaments in the future.

Questions? Email us at foresighthelpdesk at gmail.com<mailto:foresighthelpdesk at gmail.com>
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