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<p>Kirk, thanks so much for this illuminating analysis, and for
replying to my shared Vox article. Lots to think about here! Your
insight is very helpful.<br>
Gary<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 12/7/2024 8:18 AM, McClure, Kirk via
Electronic-LAN wrote:<br>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Eric, Kyle,
Bryan, Sheri and all,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Let me try
to address your questions as best I can.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Expansion
of the Lawrence Budget<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">There is
little doubt that the budget is growing. I follow Chad
Lawhorn’s stories on the overestimation of expected sales
tax revenues. But municipal budgets are not my expertise.
Like all residents of Lawrence, we expect our property taxes
to grow over time, but the growth should remain in sync with
the growth in incomes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Did
Minneapolis add more units and lowered rents as a result<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The numbers
in this chart look suspect. I checked the American Community
Survey (ACS) numbers for 2018 to 2023 for Minneapolis and
Kansas City. The ACS is a 1% survey conducted by the Census
Bureau each year. It is very reliable. The time period in
the chart is a little doubtful because it contains the
pandemic years which created turmoil for the housing
industry. Volatile numbers make it possible to compare a
non-normal peak with a non-normal valley to get a false
reading. Ignoring that issue, rents in Minneapolis rose by
27.7% over this period while they rose 31.4% in Kansas City.
Inflation rose by 31.8 percent. Thus, rents rose comparable
the growth in prices in KC while Minneapolis rose about 4
percentage points below the pace of inflation. This is good
for Minneapolis, but it is hardly a large difference, Rents
remain 10% higher in Minneapolis. Thus, even with a small
drop in rents, they remain high. On the growth in the stock
of units, the KC metropolitan area expanded its stock of
units at a pace that was 14% higher than the growth in
households; Minneapolis grew a little
<u>less rapidly</u> at 12% faster than household growth.
These numbers do not suggest to me that Minneapolis
expanded its stock faster or caused its rents to fall
significantly as a result. I recently read a study
indicating that the revised zoning in Minneapolis resulted
in a home price <u>increase</u> due to the expanded
development options in the formerly single-family zones. As
I mentioned earlier, it will take years to assess the true
effects of the Minneapolis upzoning program.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Has my
work been critiqued?<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Yes, the
paper that Alex Schwartz and I wrote was published in
<i>Housing Policy Debate</i> as a forum piece which means 4
experts were asked to review the paper with their reviews
published after the article. Alex and I were given the
opportunity to respond. None of the reviews agreed with us,
but none found fault. Each seemed to make arguments
suggesting that multiple and varied definitions of a
shortage exist. We agree that many definitions of a shortage
can be devised, but the core of the concept of a shortage is
too few units to house the population. Since at least 2000,
the housing stock has grown faster than household formation
which has grown faster than population. Households can form
faster than population growth only where the housing supply
is adequate. If the stock expands slower than population
growth, households could not form, household size would
increase, and overcrowding would worsen. None of these have
happened. The affordability problems we face result from
high prices and low incomes, not a scarcity of housing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Would a
better measure be the units available for sale?<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The answer
depends on the question being asked. If the question asks if
we have enough units to house the population, the units for
sale does not answer this question. If the question asks if
we have enough units to permit those seeking to buy a home a
large array of choices, then the units available for sale is
the better measure. Since the pandemic, the pace of growth
of new units has been slowed by high interest rates, labor
shortages and supply chain issues. This is a problem for
households seeking to buy a new home because they have fewer
choices now than in the past. This problem is compounded by
fewer existing homes offered for sale because of the recent
spike in mortgage rates. If you have a 3% interest rate on
your mortgage, it makes sense not to move because a new
mortgage will cost 6.5%. However, that prospective
homebuyers do not have as full an array of choices does not
mean that they do not have a home. We do not have a shortage
of homes, but we do have fewer homes on the market compared
to the past. To a realtor, this is a shortage. To me, it is
a short-term problem for which the Harris campaign proposed
good solutions, and the Trump campaign did not.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">What
about Short-Term Rentals (STR) such as AirBnB?<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The research
on this issue is scant. There is no high-quality database on
the STR stock. I have done a quick search on Google Scholar
on the impact of STR units on prices and find little. Most
of the research looks at the impact of STR units on hotels.
I could find no research indicating that banning STR units
lowers home prices or rents. Most of the research is
conducted in tourist destinations with high demand. None
seems to be very instructive for Lawrence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Some may
conclude from my work that government need not act.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">All
researchers suffer from this problem. Any piece of research
can be misinterpreted. My work is focused on designing the
solutions to the affordability problems of our housing
markets. Too many people conclude that affordability
problems are fueled by high prices which are due to
scarcity. They see the solution as building more units. My
work says that affordability problems are fueled by high
prices and low incomes but not by a scarcity of housing
units. I see the solution as attacking high prices and
raising wages with no need to build units any faster than we
have over the last few decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I hope this
helps.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">All the
best,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Kirk<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Kirk McClure</b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt">, Ph.D.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">Professor
Emeritus<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">Urban
Planning Program<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">University
of Kansas<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><a
href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#467886">mcclure@ku.edu</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Eric Kirkendall <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:kirkendall1@gmail.com"><kirkendall1@gmail.com></a>
<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, December 6, 2024 1:58 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> ELECTRONIC-LAN
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu"><electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu></a>; McClure, Kirk
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu"><mcclure@ku.edu></a><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Kyle Thompson <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:kthompson@sunflower.com"><kthompson@sunflower.com></a>;
Bryan Mann <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:bmann4@gmail.com"><bmann4@gmail.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Electronic-LAN] Vox.com: The
pro-housing consensus that wasn’t<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Kirk, thank you very much for sharing
actual data about Lawrence housing. If the City Commission
would make fact-based decisions, we would all be better
off. <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Perhaps we could even slow the
incredibly fast growth in the city budget (driven in part
by foolish subsidies to apartment developers) but I won't
hold my breath.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Here's my swag at recent budget
increases. The data is buried and very hard to find in
City of Lawrence records, so I can't guarantee it's 100%
correct and would appreciate better info if anybody has
it. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Regards, Eric<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
<img border="0" width="1008" height="1735"
style="width:10.5in;height:18.0729in"
id="Picture_x0020_1"
src="cid:part1.vladAdv3.3Mhq0att@gmail.com" class=""><br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, Dec 5, 2024, 4:39<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
Bryan Mann via Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hi Kirk,<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have a few questions about your
housing units vs. the population change numbers you
shared. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">What if the units are not used for
long-term housing but for other purposes, such as
Airbnb? Wouldn't a better measure be the available
supply for homeowner purchase? How do other forms of
housing commodification (like short-term rentals)
affect pricing? It must have an effect, but I have yet
to do any research to learn what that effect might be.
Can you point me in the right direction to find work
like this? Does banning Airbnb in cities (it has
happened around the world) ever put downward pressure
on pricing?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bryan Mann<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, Dec 5, 2024 at 4:18<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM
kthompson--- via Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">HI,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Let’s try attaching my chart!<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286ms-outlook-mobile-signature">
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Thanks,</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Kyle Thompson</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><a
href="mailto:kthompson@sunflower.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0563C1">kthompson@sunflower.com</span></a></span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">785-331-5783</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><img border="0"
width="264" height="49"
style="width:2.75in;height:.5104in"
id="_x0000_i1030"
src="cid:part2.FTBbHGjZ.OgIwUrPy@gmail.com" class=""></span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286mail-editor-reference-message-container">
<div>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in;border-color:currentcolor currentcolor">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span
style="color:black">From:
</span></b><span style="color:black">Electronic-LAN
<<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu</a>>
on behalf of kthompson--- via
Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>Thursday, December 5, 2024
at 3:42</span><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span><span
style="color:black">PM<br>
<b>To: </b>McClure, Kirk <<a
href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">mcclure@ku.edu</a>>,
Listserv of the Lawrence Association of
Neighborhoods (LAN) <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>>,
Sheri Ellenbecker <<a
href="mailto:sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [Electronic-LAN]
Vox.com: The pro-housing consensus that
wasn’t<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">HI Kirk,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Has your work been
critiqued by any groups like Strong Towns
or any of the large coterie of urbanists?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to this
chart, something is happening in
Minneapolis. My understanding is that it
is predominately Transit Oriented
Development and not infill duplexes and
triplexes. Note: Minneapolis is a college
town.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think people will
cite your work and say, “See we don’t need
to build more housing”, without looking at
your concerns about zoning and subsidizing
certain forms. I do believe that only
through more density, sprawl can be
contained and more affordable housing can
be built. Since LAN is concerned about the
LDC, do you have criticisms of it or are
you generally in favor of it.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286ms-outlook-mobile-signature">
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Thanks,</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">Kyle Thompson</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><a
href="mailto:kthompson@sunflower.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0563C1">kthompson@sunflower.com</span></a></span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">785-331-5783</span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><img border="0"
width="264" height="49"
style="width:2.75in;height:.5104in"
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286Picture_x0020_1"
src="cid:part2.FTBbHGjZ.OgIwUrPy@gmail.com" class=""></span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286mail-editor-reference-message-container">
<div>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in;border-color:currentcolor currentcolor">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span
style="color:black">From:
</span></b><span style="color:black">Electronic-LAN
<<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu</a>>
on behalf of McClure, Kirk via
Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>Wednesday, December 4,
2024 at 10:39</span><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span><span
style="color:black">PM<br>
<b>To: </b>Sheri Ellenbecker <<a
href="mailto:sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com</a>>,
ELECTRONIC-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re:
[Electronic-LAN] Vox.com: The
pro-housing consensus that wasn’t<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sheri and all,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Good questions.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Households
versus families. Terminology is
always tricky. In the housing
field, we all stick with the
definitions used by the Census
Bureau. A household is one or
more persons who occupy a single
housing unit. A family is two or
more persons related by blood or
marriage. A family usually lives
in a single housing unit, but a
family can be spread across
multiple units. A household may or
may not be a family. A household
can be a single individual living
alone, or a household can be 2+
people who may not be related by
blood or marriage.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The “missing
middle” and the “entry level
home.” It is true that low-cost
starter homes, duplexes and
townhouses are not being built in
great numbers. Some people blame
zoning. Minneapolis recently
eliminated single-family zoning in
an attempt to promote greater
mixing of housing types and price
levels. It will take years to see
how much, if any, effect the
elimination of single-family
zoning will have.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">NIMBY. The sad
reality is that existing
homeowners do not want low-cost
housing built in their
neighborhoods out of fear that the
low-cost units will lower the
value of the existing
higher-priced units. Whether
through zoning or other means,
existing homeowners will fight to
protect the value of their homes.
This is a political roadblock that
is hard to overcome. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Subsidies for
developers. It is very costly for
the government to subsidize
builders to construct lower cost
housing units. It is nearly always
less expensive for the government
to help low-income households
purchase units already in the
market. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">New units
versus existing units. New units
are only a very small part of the
total housing stock, and very few
households ever own a new home.
Existing units in good shape can
meet the needs of the low-income
at lower cost to the taxpayers.
It is generally more cost
effective and easier to overcome
NIMBYism to subsidize low-income
homebuyers purchase and renovate
existing homes than it is to
subsidize homebuilders to build
new homes for low-income
homebuyers.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Raise wages. I
have often said that nothing fixes
a rooftop better than a paycheck.
The single most effective housing
program is raising the minimum
wage. California recently adopted
a $20 per hour minimum wage.
Housing analysts will be watching
because when a household earns
$40,000 or more, affordability
problems tend to go away.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I hope that
this helps.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">All the best,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Kirk <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286ms-outlook-mobile-signature">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Kirk McClure</b><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Professor
Emeritus<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Urban Planning
Program<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">University of
Kansas<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">mcclure@ku.edu</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" align="center"
style="text-align:center">
<hr size="2" width="98%" align="center">
</div>
<div
id="m_-2944191802928280581m_-6887124634224411286divRplyFwdMsg">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">
Sheri Ellenbecker <<a
href="mailto:sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sheriellenbeck@hotmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 4,
2024 3:06:20 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> McClure, Kirk <<a
href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">mcclure@ku.edu</a>>;
ELECTRONIC-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> Gary Webber <<a
href="mailto:gkwebber@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">gkwebber@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Electronic-LAN]
Vox.com: The pro-housing consensus
that wasn’t</span>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks. That is
very enlightening data that you’ve
shared. Some incomplete thoughts
that I have had are that often a
family has two houses because the
family is not one unit. Does that
count as two household then? Another
thing that has been in the back of
my mind is that there is no
incentive for the builder to build a
moderately priced home. They make a
lot more money on more expensive
homes I think. so the little slab
ranchers that we rented when we were
first married are no longer being
built. The bedrooms were small. The
bathrooms were small and they had an
eaten kitchen. That served us nicely
then it seems like those are not
even being built now as
single-family dwellings. And I do
believe that most people want to
have a single family dwelling as
opposed to an apartment when they
have a family. Maybe that is
something that is no longer possible
in America. But I think in small
town America like Lawrence Kansas
that is what people want. Am I right
in that? I think that if there was a
way for the city to offer an
incentive to build these types of
homes , maybe more people could
afford them. Also, there’s another
way to look at this and that would
be to raise wages. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote
style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">On
Dec 4, 2024, at 2:58<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span>PM, McClure,
Kirk via Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif"></span> <o:p>
</o:p></p>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">LAN
members,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">I
just want to chime in on the
affordable housing issue. As
a former member of LAN from
Old West Lawrence, I continue
to follow the good work of the
association. I also am a
retired professor of urban
planning who specializes in
affordable housing.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">The
books mentioned in the Vox.com
article are all noteworthy,
but they probably are not the
best research available in the
area of affordable housing.
The authors of these books all
come to the field of housing
with limited knowledge of how
housing markets behave, and
these authors have a great
many predispositions. All are
predisposed to think that the
price of housing is high
because the supply is scarce.
In many good and services,
this may be true; it is not
true in housing. Careful
examination of the data show
that there is no shortage of
housing in nearly all of the
916 metropolitan areas of the
nation, including Lawrence.
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Some
quick facts from the Census,
the most reliable source of
population and housing data:</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">
<i>Item
2000
2020
Change
Percent Change</i></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">
Population
80,083
94,934
14,851 19%</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">
Housing Units
32,792
43,421
10,629 32%</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">
Households
31,435
39,688
8,253 26%</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Housing
growth outpaced both
population and household
formation. Thus, there is no
housing shortage in Lawrence.
But prices are high here as
they are throughout the
nation.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Prices
are high for reasons other
than scarcity. Our building
codes demand that housing be
built to high standards which
increases prices. Our
capital gains tax laws favor
investment in owner-occupied
homes making homes the single
largest component of household
net worth which contributes to
upward pressure on prices. As
a household’s largest
investment, homeowners protect
their investments with zoning
codes that exclude
lower-priced homes
contributing to upward
pressure on home prices.
Supply chain problems, labor
problems and high interest
rates have contributed to
recent increases in the costs
of building new units which
also contribute to upward
pressure on prices. The
upward trend in prices
outpaces the growth of
incomes, especially for poor
households who tend to be
renters. </span>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">The
housing affordability problems
of Lawrence (and nearly all
metropolitan markets in the
nation) result from low
incomes and a housing market
that cannot produce housing
affordably priced for the
low-income households. What
this means is that we cannot
build our way out of the
housing affordability
problem. Adding large
quantities of housing units
will not lower housing prices.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">We
can help to resolve housing
affordability problems with
rental assistance (Housing
Choice Vouchers) and
low-income homebuyer
assistance (downpayment
assistance and below-market
interest rate loans).
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">There
are exceptions. Special needs
households and the homeless
have problems that are best
addressed by building housing
that fits their special
needs. However, for the vast
majority of the population,
the market has already built
the housing that is needed; we
need to help the poor pay for
the housing that already
exists.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">I
hope that this helps.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">All
the best,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">Kirk
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><b> </b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><b>Kirk
McClure</b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt">,
Ph.D.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt">Professor
Emeritus</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt">Urban
Planning Program</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt">University
of Kansas</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt"><a
href="mailto:mcclure@ku.edu"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#467886">mcclure@ku.edu</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p style="margin:0in"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Electronic-LAN <<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan-bounces@lists.ku.edu</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Gary
Webber via Electronic-LAN<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday,
December 4, 2024 12:23 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> ELECTRONIC-LAN
<<a
href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b>
[Electronic-LAN] Vox.com:
The pro-housing consensus
that wasn’t</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p style="margin:0in"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"><a
href="https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy%2F389431%2Fhousing-affordable-homes-yimby-nimby-shortage-construction&data=05%7C02%7Celectronic-lan%40lists.ku.edu%7C99dfda0d096243856b2c08dd16e95a33%7C3c176536afe643f5b96636feabbe3c1a%7C0%7C0%7C638691913695730356%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=M37MW8WbeodVithx4gibbLwcnlUJQb1tZ68yShh5aao%3D&reserved=0" originalSrc="https://www.vox.com/policy/389431/housing-affordable-homes-yimby-nimby-shortage-construction" shash="pc1Q0X76KMFl5AzaW+dJcVrsDUAED1sypd09YnYWtERc65tEwqfJNXrrQNWK6ZLWhRUsYo6zBTStmG1j3/YG25UI2IfKdznNvUfFCSsXMjhC+28QVNUepVCKVcFxl+eVvQGL1KoHO6XI14uZhvL9S7sC0bhmTcqUA2LbIzYlTo0="
originalsrc="https://www.vox.com/policy/389431/housing-affordable-homes-yimby-nimby-shortage-construction"
shash="uTmJuZhdSnDkxAh4AD7M5UNHlcvYIYrHHBGhDc6KjKYGBYw0/MIOSEaN93xbe/aQ1/bmPuwzuThFfPYAyEFcMxSj0hIVRTfVo1jE/EqKCheaZHUNY7ScLFT+vBE2kPwLqq3T8Cn+mU0jc/cJXCMI+BnnVojYyjAfYm7aS1T8poM="
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.vox.com/policy/389431/housing-affordable-homes-yimby-nimby-shortage-construction</a> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in">I
suggest reading this article
from Vox (link above), which
summarizes 3 new books on
housing trends in the U.S.
It provides an excellent
review of the history of
housing that got us where we
are today, and the possible
paths proposed to improve
the situation.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in">Gary
Webber<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</blockquote>
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<a href="https://lists.ku.edu/listinfo/electronic-lan"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://lists.ku.edu/listinfo/electronic-lan</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<pre wrap="" class="moz-quote-pre">_______________________________________________
Electronic-LAN mailing list
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Electronic-LAN@lists.ku.edu">Electronic-LAN@lists.ku.edu</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://lists.ku.edu/listinfo/electronic-lan">https://lists.ku.edu/listinfo/electronic-lan</a>
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