<html><head></head><body><div class="ydpd8f6ef8cyahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family:Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><div><div>All -</div><div><br></div><div>Dickie raises a good point. </div><div><br></div><div>I have attached spreadsheet that assesses the balance (or lack of it) between the growth in supply and the growth in demand for housing in Lawrence, 1990, 2000, 2009 and 2017.</div><div><br></div><div>The period of 1990 to 2000 was a period of stability, 2000 to 2009 was a housing bubble and the crash, 2009 to 2017 was supposed to be the recovery period from the overbuilding of the bubble. The numbers show that we did not recover well. In fact we continued to overbuild rental units.</div><div><br></div><div>Key takeaways:</div><div> <br></div><div>1. The stock grew much faster (2,200 units) than the growth in demand from 2000 to 2017. This excessive growth was among rental units (1,100 units) and other off-market units (1,100). The owner-occupied market was balanced.</div><div>2. The rental stock has been allowed to grow too fast. The City should monitor this issue much more closely.</div><div>3. The off-market units (what the Census Bureau calls "other vacant") are a big problem. We will always have some units in probate, foreclosure and being renovated. But the number of units off the market is too large and needs to be addressed.</div><div><br></div><div>I hope that this helps.</div><div><br></div><div>All the best,</div><div>Kirk</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div class="ydpd8f6ef8csignature"><div>Kirk and Jeannie McClure</div><div>707 Tennessee Street</div><div>Lawrence, Kansas 66044.2369</div><div>785.842.8968</div><div>mcclurefamily@sbcglobal.net<br><br><br></div></div></div>
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On Monday, February 25, 2019, 1:37:39 PM CST, Richard Heckler via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu> wrote:
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<div>How many other rental projects are scheduled and/or underway? There is a sizable project underway behind Wal-Mart/Crown Toyota?</div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>Are wages going up in Lawrence,Kansas?</div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>What is somewhat different about the Lawrence rental market than it was in 1987? A rental property is not hard to find any day of the week. Voice of experience.</div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>Dickie Heckler</div><div><br clear="none"></div>
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On Monday, February 25, 2019, 12:36:02 PM CST, Carol Bowen via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu> wrote:
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<div><div id="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114"><div><br clear="none"><span>Thanks for your reply, Kirk. Now, I suggest that LAN take a lead in planning for development with appropriate incentives to make it happen. <br clear="none"></span><div dir="ltr"><br clear="none"></div><div dir="ltr" id="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114AppleMailSignature">~ Carol's phone</div><div class="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114yqt9472924661" id="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114yqt06789"><div dir="ltr"><br clear="none">On Feb 25, 2019, at 11:51 AM, Gary Webber via Electronic-lan <<a shape="rect" href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu</a>> wrote:<br clear="none"><br clear="none"></div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr">
</div></blockquote></div></div><div class="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114yqt9472924661" id="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114yqt99968"><div><font size="+1">Kirk, thanks for your comments, I will share with
Patrick.<br clear="none">
One note: I was mistaken about Patrick's affiliation in this
project. He does not represent Foxtail Real Estate in this
instance. He is an attorney representing the Opus Group in this
redevelopment project. My apologies for the error.<br clear="none">
Thanks to all for your comments. I hope to see you on Wednesday.<br clear="none">
Best.<br clear="none">
Gary<br clear="none">
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<div class="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114moz-cite-prefix">On 2/25/2019 8:52 AM, Kirk and Jeannie
McClure wrote:<br clear="none">
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<div>Gary and the LAN group -</div>
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<div>I am sorry that I am too busy with University budget
problems to be as involved with LAN issues as I would like
to be.</div>
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<div>Let me suggest a very important issue that needs to be
addressed with this redevelopment.</div>
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<div>KU's population is not growing. It is flat, and an
increasing number of our students are commuting from the
Kansas City area. Thus, the resident student rental
population is growing smaller, not larger. Given the
demographics of the State of Kansas, it is very likely that
the total enrollment at KU will go down marginally in the
future. If the student rental population is flat or growing
smaller and if Foxtail builds for 300 students, then it is
likely that the new space will be filled, not with new
growth in demand, but by taking students away from existing
rental properties in the community. The planning question
for the community is, which properties will lose the 300
students and will those losses cause a loss in value, a loss
in maintenance and a deterioration in condition?</div>
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<div>In general, Lawrence should seek to have its housing
stock grow in close correspondence with the the growth of
its households. If the stock grows too fast, older
properties suffer, lose value, and neighborhoods
deteriorate. If the stock grows too slowly, households
cannot find the housing that they need when the need to move
and prices are pushed up. </div>
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<div>Right now, the housing market in Lawrence is pretty well
balanced. The vacancy rate among owner-occupied homes if
1.9% with is very close to the ideal of 2.0%. The vacancy
rate among renter-occupied units is 6.5% with is within the
desired range of 5% to 7%. </div>
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<div>So we have a problem. We would like to see new growth
that expands the stock by replacing older properties with
new properties, but the pace of growth is critical. The
City stumbled a few years ago by subsidizing the HERE
project when the project was not needed and the subsidy was
not necessary. We have a proposal for a similar project at
11th and Massachusetts. It is doubtful that the market can
absorb both projects. It is doubtful that subsidy will be
sought for the project on 23rd Street, but it is being
sought for the downtown project. Will the City be smart
enough to pace the growth in units to match the growth in
rental households? The City has not shown this discipline
in the past. Will the City be smart enough to only provide
subsidy where it is critically needed? The City has not
shown this discipline in the past.</div>
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<div>Foxtail will tell us that their project is critically
needed. It is not. The downtown project will tell us that
their project is critical to restoring the downtown. It
could be helpful, but it is not critical. The scale
suggested for the downtown project is too large and the
subsidy costs to the taxpayers are too great.</div>
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<div>It will take skillful planning to figure out how to deal
with both of these projects (and any others that show up
within the next few years), to keep the pace of growth
within a supportable range, and protect the long-term
interests of the taxpayers.</div>
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<div>I hope that this helps.</div>
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<div>All the best,</div>
<div>Kirk</div>
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<div>Kirk and Jeannie McClure</div>
<div>707 Tennessee Street</div>
<div>Lawrence, Kansas 66044.2369</div>
<div>785.842.8968</div>
<div><a shape="rect" class="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:mcclurefamily@sbcglobal.net" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">mcclurefamily@sbcglobal.net</a><br clear="none">
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<div> On Sunday, February 24, 2019, 7:18:31 PM CST, Gary
Webber via Electronic-lan
<a shape="rect" class="ydp88e61eb4yiv8624593114moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><electronic-lan@lists.ku.edu></a> wrote: </div>
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<div> Dear LAN listserve members,<br clear="none">
The group behind a mixed-use apartment/retail
development on 23rd Street just west of Natural Grocers
has reached out to us and would like to help us
understand their project and give us a chance to
comment. Patrick Watkins with <a shape="rect" href="https://livewelllawrence.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d8f1d62c09b5db34590f34b0a&id=edbfbe29f1&e=2b79d39a08" style="color:#007C89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline;" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Foxtail
Real Estate</a> is representing <a shape="rect" href="https://livewelllawrence.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d8f1d62c09b5db34590f34b0a&id=8334a0e2a2&e=2b79d39a08" style="color:#007C89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline;" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">The
OPUS Group</a>, a Minneapolis development group.. He
is hopeful that one or two of the project managers will
attend, but if not he will lead the meeting. The OPUS
Group is headquartered in Minneapolis, but also has an
office in Kansas City. <a shape="rect" href="https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww2.ljworld.com%2Fweblogs%2Ftown_talk%2F2019%2Fjan%2F25%2Fmultistory-apartment-and-retail-building-planned-for-23rd-street-shopping-center-to-be-razed%2F&data=02%7C01%7Celectronic-lan%40lists.ku.edu%7Cb56ba324282a4b90686c08d69b6a22f0%7C3c176536afe643f5b96636feabbe3c1a%7C0%7C0%7C636867278711074542&sdata=ceE4XQjctammqWo0HSb4Xf9rAjUyGY9BbXSgXbvBqXA%3D&reserved=0" originalSrc="http://www2.ljworld.com/weblogs/town_talk/2019/jan/25/multistory-apartment-and-retail-building-planned-for-23rd-street-shopping-center-to-be-razed/" shash="bpeTdoHmfiijZ59FmQ9Ief2G5+27eiOwXApdTS3lobVi773V2Z0DLYRcjQNZoj1RKVD11FujPo/DyNuhDKbW3fU0rsp3SajC86dQPa6xj4PhZonK3yhCeLBPt90B1JKypW/wFi2NdBxlXTQkMVQTNUC5Dg1JwZocIRWJaU0MmpM=" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Here
is a Town Talk article about the project.</a> Here is
Patrick's introduction of the project:<br clear="none">
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<em>We have introduced a mixed-use student housing
project just to the west of Natural Grocers near the
23rd and Naismith intersection. The building will
have around 300 beds and over 8,000 square feet of new
retail space, along with a range of amenities for the
residents and patrons. It's the first development
project to utilize the City's Smart Code, which
emphasizes mixed uses, integration with multi-modal
transportation, and a more traditional neighborhood
design. With the bus stop, trail system, and evolving
23rd Street Corridor, we think this alternate code
makes for a nice fit on this property. We think this
project will make a meaningful contribution to having
a physically active demographic along this corridor -
and would certainly appreciate your support.</em><br clear="none">
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This is the first time that the City has used its SMART
code for a development project.<strong> We will meet
with Patrick at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 27,
in Meeting Room A of the Public Library.</strong> I
hope you will be able to attend!<br clear="none">
Best,<br clear="none">
Gary Webber<br clear="none">
LAN Secretary<br clear="none">
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