[Electronic-lan] meeting with 23rd St. developer

Tue Feb 26 07:33:16 CST 2019

Carol and all -
The Census data makes no distinction between family versus student rental housing.
The data cover all rental units:

| Type of Building | Units | Percent |
| Single-family detached or attached | 6,077 | 31% |
| Duplex | 1,555 | 8% |
| 3 or 4 units in structure | 2,929 | 15% |
| 5+ units in structure | 9,046 | 46% |
| Mobile homes | 234 | 1% |
| Total | 19,841 | 100% |

All the best,Kirk

Kirk and Jeannie McClure707 Tennessee StreetLawrence, Kansas 66044.2369785.842.8968mcclurefamily at sbcglobal.net

    On Monday, February 25, 2019, 5:10:20 PM CST, Carol Bowen <carolb at sunflower.com> wrote:  

 More questions. Does the data on rental units separate student rentals from "family" rentals? Are rental houses included, or is the data on apartments only?

~ Carol
On Feb 25, 2019, at 3:42 PM, Kirk and Jeannie McClure via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan at lists.ku.edu> wrote:

All -
Dickie raises a good point.  
I have attached spreadsheet that assesses the balance (or lack of it) between the growth in supply and the growth in demand for housing in Lawrence, 1990, 2000, 2009 and 2017.
The period of 1990 to 2000 was a period of stability, 2000 to 2009 was a housing bubble and the crash, 2009 to 2017 was supposed to be the recovery period from the overbuilding of the bubble.  The numbers show that we did not recover well.  In fact we continued to overbuild rental units.
Key takeaways: 
1. The stock grew much faster (2,200 units) than the growth in demand from 2000 to 2017.  This excessive growth was among rental units (1,100 units) and other off-market units (1,100).  The owner-occupied market was balanced.2.  The rental stock has been allowed to grow too fast.  The City should monitor this issue much more closely.3.  The off-market units (what the Census Bureau calls "other vacant") are a big problem.  We will always have some units in probate, foreclosure and being renovated.  But the number of units off the market is too large and needs to be addressed.
I hope that this helps.
All the best,Kirk

Kirk and Jeannie McClure707 Tennessee StreetLawrence, Kansas 66044.2369785.842.8968mcclurefamily at sbcglobal.net

    On Monday, February 25, 2019, 1:37:39 PM CST, Richard Heckler via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan at lists.ku.edu> wrote:  

  How many other rental projects are scheduled and/or underway?  There is a sizable project underway behind Wal-Mart/Crown Toyota?
Are wages going up in Lawrence,Kansas?
What is somewhat different about the Lawrence rental market than it was in 1987? A rental property is not hard to find any day of the week. Voice of experience.
Dickie Heckler
    On Monday, February 25, 2019, 12:36:02 PM CST, Carol Bowen via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan at lists.ku.edu> wrote:  

Thanks for your reply, Kirk. Now, I suggest that LAN take a lead in planning for development with appropriate incentives to make it happen. 

~ Carol's phone
On Feb 25, 2019, at 11:51 AM, Gary Webber via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan at lists.ku.edu> wrote:

Kirk, thanks for your comments, I will share with Patrick.
 One note: I was mistaken about Patrick's affiliation in this project.  He does not represent Foxtail Real Estate in this instance.  He is an attorney representing the Opus Group in this redevelopment project. My apologies for the error.
 Thanks to all for your comments.  I hope to see you on Wednesday.
 Best.
 Gary

 On 2/25/2019 8:52 AM, Kirk and Jeannie McClure wrote:

  Gary and the LAN group - 
  I am sorry that I am too busy with University budget problems to be as involved with LAN issues as I would like to be. 
  Let me suggest a very important issue that needs to be addressed with this redevelopment. 
  KU's population is not growing.  It is flat, and an increasing number of our students are commuting from the Kansas City area.  Thus, the resident student rental population is growing smaller, not larger.  Given the demographics of the State of Kansas, it is very likely that the total enrollment at KU will go down marginally in the future.  If the student rental population is flat or growing smaller and if Foxtail builds for 300 students, then it is likely that the new space will be filled, not with new growth in demand, but by taking students away from existing rental properties in the community.  The planning question for the community is, which properties will lose the 300 students and will those losses cause a loss in value, a loss in maintenance and a deterioration in condition? 
  In general, Lawrence should seek to have its housing stock grow in close correspondence with the the growth of its households.  If the stock grows too fast, older properties suffer, lose value, and neighborhoods deteriorate.  If the stock grows too slowly, households cannot find the housing that they need when the need to move and prices are pushed up.   
  Right now, the housing market in Lawrence is pretty well balanced.  The vacancy rate among owner-occupied homes if 1.9% with is very close to the ideal of 2.0%.  The vacancy rate among renter-occupied units is 6.5% with is within the desired range of 5% to 7%.   
  So we have a problem.  We would like to see new growth that expands the stock by replacing older properties with new properties, but the pace of growth is critical.  The City stumbled a few years ago by subsidizing the HERE project when the project was not needed and the subsidy was not necessary.  We have a proposal for a similar project at 11th and Massachusetts.  It is doubtful that the market can absorb both projects.  It is doubtful that subsidy will be sought for the project on 23rd Street, but it is being sought for the downtown project.  Will the City be smart enough to pace the growth in units to match the growth in rental households?  The City has not shown this discipline in the past.  Will the City be smart enough to only provide subsidy where it is critically needed?  The City has not shown this discipline in the past. 
  Foxtail will tell us that their project is critically needed.  It is not. The downtown project will tell us that their project is critical to restoring the downtown.  It could be helpful, but it is not critical.  The scale suggested for the downtown project is too large and the subsidy costs to the taxpayers are too great. 
  It will take skillful planning to figure out how to deal with both of these projects (and any others that show up within the next few years), to keep the pace of growth within a supportable range, and protect the long-term interests of the taxpayers. 
  I hope that this helps. 
  All the best, Kirk 

   Kirk and Jeannie McClure 707 Tennessee Street Lawrence, Kansas 66044.2369 785.842.8968 mcclurefamily at sbcglobal.net

      On Sunday, February 24, 2019, 7:18:31 PM CST, Gary Webber via Electronic-lan <electronic-lan at lists.ku.edu> wrote:  

     Dear LAN listserve members,
 The group behind a  mixed-use apartment/retail development on 23rd Street just west of Natural Grocers has reached out to us and would like to help us  understand their project and give us a chance to comment. Patrick Watkins with Foxtail Real Estate is representing The OPUS Group, a Minneapolis development group..  He is hopeful that one or two of the project managers will attend, but if not he will lead the meeting.  The OPUS Group is headquartered in Minneapolis, but also has an office in Kansas City.  Here is a Town Talk article about the project. Here is Patrick's introduction of the project:

 We have introduced a mixed-use student housing project just to the west of Natural Grocers near the 23rd and Naismith intersection.  The building will have around 300 beds and over 8,000 square feet of new retail space, along with a range of amenities for the residents and patrons.  It's the first development project to utilize the City's Smart Code, which emphasizes mixed uses, integration with multi-modal transportation, and a more traditional neighborhood design.  With the bus stop, trail system, and evolving 23rd Street Corridor, we think this alternate code makes for a nice fit on this property.  We think this project will make a meaningful contribution to having a physically active demographic along this corridor - and would certainly appreciate your support.

 This is the first time that the City has used its SMART code for a development project. We will meet with Patrick at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 27, in Meeting Room A of the Public Library. I hope you will be able to attend!
 Best,
 Gary Webber
 LAN Secretary
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<Lawrence housing stock growth 1990 to 2017.xlsx>

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